Independent affiliate guide
Polymarket turns real-world events elections, rate decisions, championships, product launches into tradable Yes/No markets priced by people putting money behind their view. This is your complete walkthrough before you sign up.
18+ only. Availability and features vary by jurisdiction. We may earn a commission if you sign up through our link see disclosure below.
Getting started
No special software or trading background needed just an account, a funding method, and a view on how something turns out.
Sign up in a couple of minutes and verify your details. Funding options typically include crypto, card, or bank transfer depending on your region.
Browse by category or search a specific question. Every market lists exact resolution rules and the source used to settle it, before you trade.
Buy Yes or No shares at the current price. If the market resolves your way, each share pays out $1 if not, it settles at zero.
The core idea
A poll asks people what they think. A prediction market asks people to back that opinion with money and that single change affects everything about how the information behaves.
How fast each signal updates
Illustrative comparison of update frequency, not a measured statistic.
Anyone can voice an opinion for free. Backing that opinion with a trade means overconfident or careless views cost something, which tends to filter out noise over time.
A poll is a snapshot taken every few weeks. A market price moves the moment new information arrives a debate performance, an earnings call, a court ruling.
Thousands of traders each bring a small piece of information or judgment. The price is the combined result often more complete than any single expert's view.
Every market states exactly what counts as Yes or No and which source resolves it, removing the ambiguity that surrounds a loosely worded prediction or hot take.
What you can trade
Every market is a simple Yes/No question with a price between 0¢ and 100¢ that price is the crowd's real-time estimate of the odds.
Elections, control of Congress, legislation, and appointments.
Price levels, protocol upgrades, ETF decisions, and network milestones.
Geopolitics, conflict developments, global leadership changes.
Championships, MVP races, transfers, and single-game outcomes.
Model releases, company milestones, product launches.
Rate decisions, inflation prints, jobs reports, and recession odds.
Worked example
A simplified, illustrative walkthrough of how money moves through a single position useful for understanding the mechanics before you trade with real funds.
Scenario: A market asks "Will the central bank cut rates at its next meeting?" You think a cut is more likely than the current price suggests.
Yes shares are trading at 35¢, meaning the crowd currently prices the odds of a cut at roughly 35%.
You spend $35 to buy 100 Yes shares at 35¢ each. Your maximum possible loss on this position is $35.
Inflation data comes in soft. Traders reprice the odds of a cut higher, and Yes shares now trade at 60¢.
You can sell now to lock in a gain, or hold until the meeting outcome is confirmed and the market resolves.
100 shares × 60¢ = $60 back on a $35 stake, before any fees a realized gain without waiting for resolution.
If the market resolves Yes, each share pays $1 ($100 total, a $65 profit). If it resolves No, shares pay $0 and you lose the full $35 staked.
Simplified for illustration actual prices move continuously, and fees, slippage, and liquidity affect real trades. Not a recommendation to trade any specific market.
Why people trade here
Polls and pundits offer opinions. A market price reflects what traders are actually willing to risk updated the moment new information lands.
Odds update continuously as news breaks and traders reposition no waiting for the next poll.
Each market states exactly what source and criteria will settle it, published before you ever trade.
Markets run around the clock, from short weekly questions to positions held for months.
See depth and recent trades on every market before deciding how much to risk.
Weigh it up
An honest look at what prediction markets do well, and where the tradeoffs are so you can decide with clear eyes.
A different kind of feed
A confident post gets likes whether it's right or not. A market price only holds if people are willing to back it with money which changes what you can trust.
In context
A quick look at prediction markets next to the tools people traditionally use to gauge how something will turn out.
| Signal | Prediction market | Opinion polling | Pundit forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Updates in real time | Yes | Periodic | Occasional |
| Backed by money at risk | Yes | No | No |
| Published resolution criteria | Yes | Varies | Rarely |
| Covers niche questions | Thousands | Limited | Limited |
| You can exit before the result | Yes, by selling | N/A | N/A |
General comparison for context — not a guarantee of accuracy for any individual market.
A closer look
Each category has its own rhythm some move on a fixed calendar, others react to breaking news within minutes. Here's what tends to drive each one.
The deepest and most actively traded category, spanning elections, control of Congress, cabinet appointments, and legislative votes. Prices move on polling shifts, debate performances, primary results, and breaking political news, making it the category most people encounter first.
Markets on price thresholds, network upgrades, regulatory decisions, and exchange listings. This category trades around the clock and can move sharply on a single tweet, filing, or on-chain event, which makes it one of the fastest-moving on the platform.
Geopolitics, conflicts, diplomatic developments, and leadership changes across countries. These markets can run for months on a slow-building story, then jump sharply overnight when a summit, ceasefire, or election result lands.
Championship winners, season awards, transfers, and individual game outcomes. Longer-dated season markets drift gradually with team form, while single-game markets can swing in real time as the event unfolds.
Product launches, model releases, benchmark leaders, and company milestones. This is one of the newer and fastest-growing categories, often tracking industry announcements and competitive races between major labs and companies.
Interest rate decisions, inflation prints, employment reports, and recession odds. These markets tend to move in bursts around scheduled data releases and central bank meetings, then hold steady between them.
Trade with a clear head
Prediction markets carry real financial risk. A little discipline up front makes the experience better and safer, whatever level you're trading at.
Set a fixed budget for trading before you start, and treat it as money you're comfortable not getting back.
Understand exactly what source and criteria settle a market before you take a position, not after.
Avoid putting a large share of your budget into one market, however confident you feel about the outcome.
A losing position doesn't need to be "won back" immediately increasing size after a loss usually raises risk, not odds.
A market price is a consensus estimate, not a certainty. Thin or emotional markets can misprice an outcome.
Step away between trades rather than watching prices continuously most markets resolve over days or weeks, not minutes.
If trading ever stops feeling like a choice if you're chasing losses, hiding activity, or trading money set aside for essentials it's worth pausing and talking to someone. In the US, the National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is available 24/7 at 1-800-522-4700. Similar confidential helplines exist in most countries; a quick search for "problem gambling helpline" plus your country will surface the right one.
Fit check
It isn't the right tool for everyone. Here's who tends to get the most out of it and who might be better served elsewhere.
If you already follow elections and polling closely, trading turns that attention into a quantified view instead of just an opinion.
Strong fitComfortable with wallets and on-chain assets, and looking for markets beyond simple price speculation.
Strong fitEnjoy digging into base rates, sources, and probabilities rather than relying on gut feel or headlines.
Strong fitAlready compare lines across sportsbooks and want season-long and prop-style markets in one place.
Good fitTrack rate decisions and jobs reports already, and want a direct way to express a view on the next print.
Good fitIf losing your stake would cause real hardship, or you just want news context, reading and comparing odds without trading is a reasonable way to use the platform.
Proceed carefullyQuestions
Everything worth knowing before you fund an account and place your first trade.
A venue where you buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of a real-world event. Each share settles at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't the current price reflects the market's implied probability.
It's structurally different: you're trading a share whose price moves before the event resolves, and you can exit your position early by selling, rather than placing a single fixed wager and waiting for the result.
Yes. If a market resolves against your position, the shares you hold settle at $0. Only risk money you can afford to lose, and treat any single market price as one input, not a certainty.
Availability, funding methods, and features depend on local regulation and vary by country and, in some cases, by state. Check current eligibility directly on the platform before signing up.
Common options include crypto, card, and bank transfer, though what's offered depends on your region — the sign-up flow will show what's available to you.
Each market publishes its resolution source and exact criteria upfront often a named news outlet, official data release, or government body so settlement isn't left to interpretation.
Fee structures can include spreads and, in some cases, trading or withdrawal fees. Check the current fee schedule on the platform directly, since it can change over time.
Yes, as long as there's an active order book for that market. Selling early locks in a gain or loss based on the current price rather than waiting for final resolution.
There's no large capital requirement — you can typically open a position with a small amount. Start small while you learn how prices and order books behave.
No. Prices reflect current trader consensus, which can be wrong, especially in thinly traded or fast-moving markets. Treat prices as a useful estimate, not a guarantee.
Well-designed markets specify a fallback resolution process for ambiguous cases, often defaulting to official certification or a secondary named source. Always check a market's specific rules before trading it.
Not necessarily. Depending on your region, you may be able to fund an account with a card or bank transfer without directly handling crypto wallets yourself.
Shares here are tied to a one-time event outcome rather than ongoing company performance, and every share has a fixed maximum payout of $1 once the market resolves.
They're two sides of the same question. Yes shares pay $1 if the event happens; No shares pay $1 if it doesn't. Their prices always add up to roughly $1 between them.
Once a market is officially resolved, winning shares are typically settled automatically and funds become available in your account shortly after.
Most prediction market platforms, including Polymarket, offer a mobile-friendly site or app so you can check prices and trade away from a desktop.
Some platforms allow proposing new markets or questions, subject to review. Check the current process on the platform, since rules around this can change.
Depending on your region and funding method, some level of identity verification may be required to comply with local regulations before you can deposit or withdraw.
Ready when you are
Create an account and browse live markets across politics, crypto, sports, and more.
Affiliate disclosure: This is an independently operated page. Links to Polymarket may be affiliate links, meaning we may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through them, at no extra cost to you. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or acting on behalf of Polymarket.
Risk notice: Trading on prediction markets involves real financial risk, including the potential loss of your full stake on any position. Prices are set by traders and can move quickly on new information. Nothing on this page is financial advice do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance.
Eligibility: You must be 18 or older (or the age of majority in your jurisdiction) to trade. Availability varies by country and region; some jurisdictions restrict or prohibit access. Confirm eligibility on the official platform before signing up.